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GOVERNMENT DEBT SOARS
As government debt ①soars，you have to pinch yourself to remember that only 10 years ago investors worried that western government bond markets were shrinking so fast that they might disappear. There was even talk that triple ②AAA rated corporate bonds would eventually replace Treasuries as global debt benchmarks. Indeed，in 2000 net global issuance of government debt was a mere $250bn. This year alone the UK will issue a third more than that;Eurozone governments almost six times as much.
It has been an open question how long this can continue before investors go on strike，rising indebtedness saps economic growth，and inflation takes off. But now，③from the ④economists who wrote the book on the impact of financial crises on public finances， comes a suggested answer-and a warning.
After examining the record of 44 countries for more than 200 years，Kenneth Rogoff，former International Monetary Fund chief economist，and Carmen Reinhart，a colleague，found little link between rising public debt and higher inflation in developed countries. That should ⑤soothe the inflation anxiety of some investors. They also found little relationship between debt and economic growth-so long as gross public debt stayed under 90 per cent of gross domestic product. That gets the US and the UK，with debt to GDP ratios of 84 per cent and 72 respectively，⑥off the hook for now.
But when debt rises above that level，average growth drops by as much as 2 percentage points. Moreover，such high levels of debt were usually only reached during big wars. This debt build-up，by contrast，is in a time of relative peace.Use the latest IMF projections and Washington has only a year before it breaches the 90 per cent danger mark and needs to reholster its cheque book; London at best two.
譯文梗概
美英政府債務(wù)逼近“警戒水平”
隨著政府債務(wù)激增，你得掐一下自己才會(huì)記起：就在10年前，投資者還擔(dān)心西方政府債券市場(chǎng)萎縮得太快，有可能會(huì)蕩然無存。美國(guó)曾考慮是否應(yīng)取消30年期國(guó)債。甚至曾有傳言稱，AAA級(jí)公司債最終將取代美國(guó)國(guó)債成為全球債務(wù)基準(zhǔn)。事實(shí)上，2000年全球政府債務(wù)凈發(fā)行額只有2500億美元。僅在今年，英國(guó)的發(fā)行額就將比這多出1/3；歐元區(qū)政府的發(fā)行額幾乎是它的6倍。
在投資者抵制債市、高漲的債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)拖累經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)及通脹走高之前，上述局面能維持多久？這個(gè)問題始終沒有得到解答。不過，著書闡述金融危機(jī)對(duì)公共財(cái)政影響的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家，如今提出了一個(gè)暗示性的答案和一項(xiàng)警告。
考查了44個(gè)國(guó)家200年間的記錄后，國(guó)際貨幣基金組織(IMF)前首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家肯尼思·羅格夫(Kenneth Rogoff)和同事卡門·萊因哈特(Carmen Reinhart)發(fā)現(xiàn)，在發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家，政府債務(wù)增加與通脹上升之間幾乎沒有聯(lián)系。一些投資者對(duì)通脹的憂慮應(yīng)該會(huì)因此得到緩解。二人還發(fā)現(xiàn)，只要政府債務(wù)總額與國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)的比例保持在90%以下，債務(wù)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間沒有什么關(guān)系。這使美國(guó)與英國(guó)暫時(shí)脫離了險(xiǎn)境——兩國(guó)債務(wù)與GDP的比例分別為84%和72%。
然而，當(dāng)債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)超過上述水平時(shí)，平均經(jīng)濟(jì)增幅就會(huì)下降最多兩個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。此外，如此高的債務(wù)水平過去通常只出現(xiàn)在大戰(zhàn)時(shí)期。相反，當(dāng)前的債務(wù)增長(zhǎng)卻出現(xiàn)在相對(duì)和平的時(shí)期。根據(jù)IMF的最新預(yù)測(cè)，只要再過一年，華盛頓的債務(wù)比例就會(huì)突破90%的“警戒水平”，因此必須著手重整本國(guó)財(cái)政；留給倫敦的時(shí)間則最多只有兩年。
(文章來源：FT中文網(wǎng))
點(diǎn)評(píng)
①Soar，意為rise /increase swiftly or powerfully，“猛增”，與本句中的shrink形成對(duì)照，shrink意為decrease in size/scale/value，etc.“(規(guī)模或者價(jià)值等方面的)萎縮”
②AAA，top rating for bonds of the highest quality awarded by the main rating agencies：Standard & Poor‘s，Moody’s and Fitch IBCA.給予優(yōu)質(zhì)債券的最高評(píng)級(jí)。由標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾、穆迪和惠譽(yù)國(guó)際等主要評(píng)級(jí)機(jī)構(gòu)評(píng)定。
③劃線部分為狀語前置引起的倒裝結(jié)構(gòu)，正常語序應(yīng)該為：A suggested answer-and a warning，comes from the economists who wrote the book on the impact of financial crises on public finances.
④economists其后緊接一個(gè)限制性定語從句，由于先行詞為人且作主語，所以引導(dǎo)詞用who.
⑤soothe，意為to relieve or assuage(pain or longing)，“減緩(疼痛、不安等)”，在此是減緩?fù)浺l(fā)的投資者的擔(dān)憂。
⑥off the hook本意為脫離掛鉤，hook在此寓意即為下一段中的danger mark，“警戒水平”。 |