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Iceland
Power to the people. Next month，Icelanders may get to ①vote on whether they would like to hand over 12，000 each to the UK and the Netherlands. It seems a ②no-brainer. But if Iceland refuses to repay the 3.9bn debt，it risks becoming an international③pariah.
It still need not come to that. Most Icelanders acknowledge，albeit grudgingly，they have to ④meet their international obligations;the president signed an earlier loan agreement to that effect last year.But the UK and the Netherlands objected to some of its terms and demanded changes.The new agreement is hardly punitive：a 15-year loan，with a seven-year ⑤grace period and a chance to renegotiate terms in 2024.While the 5.5 per cent interest rate is higher than current British or eurozone borrowing costs，neither country is pocketing a juicy spread：yields on 15-year Dutch government bonds are about 4 per cent，while UK bond yields are half a percentage point more. Perhaps these details can be tweaked;ultimately all three governments need do a better job of explaining to their people the costs of rejecting a deal.
Iceland’s situation is extreme，but several governments nearby are also having to persuade their citizens of the need to ⑥tighten their belts. So far Ireland and Latvia have been willing to take the pain of required economic adjustment as the price of euro membership. The jury is out on Greece and Spain. Then there is the historic example of serial ⑦defaulter Argentina. Ten years after repudiating its international debts，Argentina hopes to strike a deal with unpaid creditors this month. A similar path must be an unappealing prospect for Iceland. A decade is a long time to spend ⑧out in the cold，particularly if all you have left to eat is fish.
譯文梗概
冰島會(huì)不會(huì)逃債？
把決定權(quán)交給人民。下月，冰島可能會(huì)就是否要向英國和荷蘭償還債務(wù)進(jìn)行全民公決。這筆債務(wù)若是平攤，每個(gè)冰島人要攤到1.2萬歐元。這看起來是一個(gè)想都不用想的問題。但如果冰島拒絕償還39億歐元的債務(wù)，就有在國際上遭受唾棄之虞。
不過事情無需走到那一步。多數(shù)冰島人雖然心里不情愿，但還是承認(rèn)自己應(yīng)當(dāng)履行國際義務(wù)。去年冰島總統(tǒng)簽署了一份允諾還款的協(xié)議，但英國和荷蘭不同意其中一些條款，要求修改協(xié)議。新協(xié)議稱不上苛刻：期限15年的貸款，有7年的寬限期，并有機(jī)會(huì)在2024年重新議定條款。雖然5.5%的利率高于英國和歐元區(qū)現(xiàn)行貸款利率，但不論是對英國還是對荷蘭來說，利差都不大：荷蘭15年期國債的收益率為4%左右，英國國債比這高半個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。這些細(xì)節(jié)可能還會(huì)調(diào)整，而最終，三國政府都需要更好地向民眾解釋拒簽協(xié)議將會(huì)帶來的代價(jià)。
冰島的案例比較極端，但周邊數(shù)個(gè)政府目前也正在勸導(dǎo)民眾務(wù)必勒緊腰帶。迄今為止，冰島和拉脫維亞都愿意承擔(dān)加入歐元區(qū)的代價(jià)，進(jìn)行必要的經(jīng)濟(jì)調(diào)整。希臘和西班牙則說不準(zhǔn)。而屢次拖欠債務(wù)的阿根廷則可以為鑒。十年前拒付國際債務(wù)的阿根廷希望在本月與債權(quán)國達(dá)成一個(gè)協(xié)議。冰島肯定不希望重蹈阿根廷覆轍。被冷落十年實(shí)在過于漫長，尤其是如果你只剩下魚可吃的話。
（文章來源：FT中文網(wǎng)）
點(diǎn)評(píng):
①vote on，對...進(jìn)行表決，vote for/against，贊成/反對。
②no-brainer意為，“不必花腦筋的事物”，“傻瓜都知道的問題”。
③pariah，本意為“賤民，被社會(huì)遺棄者”，在此表示冰島若逃債，將降低其國際信用。
④meet one’s obligation，履行義務(wù)；
⑤grace period(行動(dòng)、責(zé)任等的)寬限期，包含兩層意思：1.指放款人同意借款人只支付利息，暫時(shí)無須償還本金的一段時(shí)期。2.指過了付款期限，收款的一方同時(shí)延長付款期限，在寬限期滿之前支付則不算違約。
⑥tighten one’s belt，意為勒緊腰帶，節(jié)約度日。
⑦defaulter，意為“a person who fails to fulfil a duty，obligation，or undertaking，especially to pay a tax or other debt”，就是違約者、不履行義務(wù)者、拖欠者。
⑧out in the cold，該短語意為“遭受冷落，受到忽視”，形象說明了阿根廷由于拒付債務(wù)而造成國際信用降低的后果。 |