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ASIAN BANKS WARY OF PROPERTY BUBBLES
BUILDING-UP
Residential property prices are rising across much of
Asia，prompting fears of a real estate bubble. Apartments are selling for
staggering prices，and central banks and finance ministries have begunto ①rein in
property-related stimulus measures.
Yet it seems only
yesterday that prices were falling，giving rise to fears of a ②hard landing for
property investors ③that could have destroyed huge amounts of personal
wealth and delayed the recovery.
In Hong Kong，for
example，prices for apartments costing more than HK$10m(US$1.3m）fell 6.2 per cent
in the third quarter of last year，according to Savills Research， which feared
that luxury prices might fall by a further 40-45 per cent by the end of this
year.
As it turn sout，luxury apartment prices in Hong Kong
are now 30 per cent above their low point in the fourth quarter of 2008，with
prices up 14 per cent just between the second and third quarter this year in
favoured neighbourhoods. Similarly in Singapore，prices for private homesrose
15.8 per cent in the third quarter from the second，the first such rise in more
than a year.In China，prices are up 37 per cent
year-on-year.
So is Asia in the grip of a bubble or just
enjoying a healthy reaction to excessive gloom and doom of the end of last year？
No one really knows， but some governments and central banks are taking limited
pre-emptive action just in case.
In Singapore， the
government has shut down bank lending schemes that allowed buyers to defer
mortgage payments on uncompleted developments， and hinted at land sales to
increase supply. Tharman Shanmugaratnam， Singapore’s finance minister，told
the Financial Times that these measures appeared to be having some effect， but
it was not clear whether further action was needed. “It is worth watching very
carefully，”hesaid.
South Korea’s financial regulator has
tightened rules on borrowing，and in Hong Kong the central bank has warned that
low interest rates are not sustainable. It increased the required down-payment
on homes costing more than HK$20m by a third， to 40 per cent.
However， no country other than Australia—gripped by a
China-fuelled commodity boom—has taken the step of raising benchmark interest
rates to cool demand. That reluctance reflects fears that higher rates could
choke off domestic recovery and push up Asian currencies against the US dollar，
harming trade prospects.
It also suggests central banks
are not yet sufficiently sure that an asset price bubble is forming.
Jim Rogers， the Singapore-based international
investor，said there were clearly hot spots but no general region-wide bubble.
“I would not think about buying in Hong Kong or
Shanghai，but it is not so widespread that all of Asia is in some sort of
④property bubble，” Mr Rogers told the FT. “It may happen... but I don’t think
it’s happening now.”
Some observers go further，asserting
that the bubble is an illusion. Matt Nacard， Tuck Yin Soong and Eva Lee，
property analysts at Macquarie Research， say price growth is likely to
slow significantly next year because it has been largely a product of the
⑤stimulus measures introduced to fight off recession.
Frederic Neumann， senior Asia economist at HSBC in Hong Kong，says policymakers
will have to raise rates eventually from the extraordinarily low levels reached
during the global financial crisis， but are right to hold their fire for now.
“If left unaddressed， the current monetary set-up in Asia will ultimately blow
abubble of mind-boggling size， but so far the train has not left the station，”
MrNeumannsays.
譯文梗概
亞洲銀行警惕樓市泡沫
亞洲許多地方住宅價(jià)格正在上漲，引發(fā)人們對(duì)樓市泡沫的擔(dān)憂。有些地方的公寓已賣到令人錯(cuò)愕的價(jià)位，各國(guó)央行和財(cái)政部已開(kāi)始收緊與房地產(chǎn)相關(guān)的刺激措施。
然而，房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格仿佛昨天還在下降，這使人擔(dān)心樓市投資者可能面臨硬著陸，導(dǎo)致巨額個(gè)人財(cái)富蒸發(fā)，并推遲經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇。
例如，根據(jù)第一太平戴維斯研究部(SavillsResearch)的數(shù)據(jù)，香港1000萬(wàn)港幣(合130萬(wàn)美元)以上公寓的價(jià)格在去年第三季度曾下跌6.2%。該機(jī)構(gòu)當(dāng)時(shí)擔(dān)心，豪宅樓價(jià)到今年底可能再下跌40%至45%。
結(jié)果卻是，香港豪華公寓現(xiàn)在的價(jià)格比2008年末季的低位高出30%，在一些熱門地段，僅今年第三季度的價(jià)格水平就比第二季度高出14%。類似的情況也在新加坡出現(xiàn)，該國(guó)第三季度私人住宅的價(jià)格比第二季度高出15.8%，這是一年多來(lái)的首次上漲。在中國(guó)，樓市價(jià)格同比上漲37%。
那么，亞洲究竟是已經(jīng)籠罩在泡沫之下，還是對(duì)去年末過(guò)度悲觀的健康反應(yīng)？沒(méi)有人真正知道答案，但一些國(guó)家的政府和央行正采取有限度的預(yù)防行動(dòng)，以免局面失控。
在新加坡，政府已叫停那些允許未完工樓盤的買家推遲按揭償付的銀行放貸方案，并暗示將出售更多土地以增加供應(yīng)。
不過(guò)，除澳大利亞(該國(guó)正在經(jīng)歷由中國(guó)需求推動(dòng)的大宗商品繁榮)以外，該地區(qū)內(nèi)迄今還沒(méi)有一個(gè)國(guó)家為了抑制需求而采取提高基準(zhǔn)利率的步驟。這種不情愿反映出官方的擔(dān)心，即利率上調(diào)可能扼殺國(guó)內(nèi)復(fù)蘇，并推高亞洲貨幣對(duì)美元的匯率，從而損害本國(guó)的貿(mào)易前景。
這種局面還表明，各國(guó)央行尚未充分確定資產(chǎn)價(jià)格泡沫正在形成。
以新加坡為大本營(yíng)的國(guó)際投資者吉姆·羅杰斯(JimRogers)表示，市場(chǎng)上有一些明顯的熱點(diǎn)，但不存在席卷整個(gè)亞洲的普遍泡沫。
有些觀察人士更進(jìn)一步，稱所謂的泡沫只是一個(gè)錯(cuò)覺(jué)。
匯豐(HSBC)駐香港的亞太區(qū)高級(jí)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家范力民(FredericNeumann)表示，政策制定者最終將不得不上調(diào)利率，告別全球金融危機(jī)期間不尋常的低利率水平，但現(xiàn)在按兵不動(dòng)是正確的。
（文章來(lái)源：FT中文網(wǎng)）
點(diǎn)評(píng)
①rein相當(dāng)于“control”，作名詞時(shí)，意味“韁繩”，可引申為“控制”的意思，作動(dòng)詞時(shí)，意為“勒韁繩使(馬)停步，駕馭，控制”，非常形象地表達(dá)了“收緊刺激措施”的含義。②hard
landing，硬著陸，與之相對(duì)應(yīng)的是soft landing，軟著陸。③that could have destroyed huge amounts of
personal wealth and delayed the
recovery定語(yǔ)從句，先行詞是hardlanding，couldhavedestroyed這一虛擬結(jié)構(gòu)表示“過(guò)去本能夠做某事卻未做”，意在表明人們對(duì)這種潛在破壞的擔(dān)憂。④property
bubble即為房地產(chǎn)泡沫，還有real estate bubble，housing bubble等表達(dá)方式。⑤the stimulus measures
introduced to fight off
recession中的introducedtofightoffrecession為后置定語(yǔ)，相當(dāng)于一個(gè)定語(yǔ)從句，即the stimulus measures
that/which are introduced to fight off recession。
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