美國聯(lián)邦儲備委員會19日宣布，從4月起將月度資產(chǎn)購買規(guī)模從650億美元縮減至550億美元，同時調(diào)整有關(guān)聯(lián)邦基金利率的前瞻指引。
美聯(lián)儲當天在結(jié)束貨幣政策例會后發(fā)表聲明說，1月以來的數(shù)據(jù)顯示美國經(jīng)濟活動在寒冬季節(jié)有所放緩，這部分反映出不利天氣的影響。美聯(lián)儲決策機構(gòu)聯(lián)邦公開市場委員會認為，美國整體經(jīng)濟的潛在力量足夠支持就業(yè)市場持續(xù)改善。
美聯(lián)儲決定，從4月起將長期國債的月度購買規(guī)模從350億美元降至300億美元，將抵押貸款支持證券的月度購買規(guī)模從300億美元降至250億美元。這樣一來，美聯(lián)儲月度資產(chǎn)購買規(guī)模將從此前的650億美元縮減至550億美元。
在繼續(xù)削減月度購債規(guī)模的同時，美聯(lián)儲調(diào)整了有關(guān)短期利率走勢的前瞻指引，去掉了之前使用的失業(yè)率6.5%的參考值。聲明指出，在決定將目前接近于零的聯(lián)邦基金利率(即商業(yè)銀行間隔夜拆借利率)保持多長時間時，美聯(lián)儲將衡量一系列指標，包括勞動力市場狀況、通脹壓力和預期以及金融市場狀況，以衡量經(jīng)濟在就業(yè)和通脹兩大政策目標上已取得和有望取得的進展。
美聯(lián)儲預計，在未來結(jié)束資產(chǎn)購買計劃之后，仍有必要把聯(lián)邦基金利率接近于零的水平保持相當一段時間。美聯(lián)儲還指出，即使在通脹和就業(yè)兩大指標接近政策目標的情況下，基于經(jīng)濟表現(xiàn)，一段時間內(nèi)仍有必要把聯(lián)邦基金利率保持在美聯(lián)儲所認為的長期正常水平以下。
本次會議是美聯(lián)儲主席耶倫就任后主持的第一次貨幣政策例會。耶倫在會后的記者會上指出，有關(guān)利率前瞻指引的改變并不代表美聯(lián)儲政策意圖的改變，而是美聯(lián)儲順應經(jīng)濟形勢變化所做的調(diào)整。
美聯(lián)儲政策聲明全文（英文版）
美聯(lián)儲2014年3月19日政策聲明全文（英文版）
Information received since the Federal Open Market
Committee met in January indicates that growth in economic activity slowed
during the winter months, in part reflecting adverse weather conditions. Labor
market indicators were mixed but on balance showed further improvement. The
unemployment rate, however, remains elevated. Household spending and business
fixed investment continued to advance, while the recovery in the housing sector
remained slow. Fiscal policy is restraining economic growth, although the extent
of restraint is diminishing. Inflation has been running below the Committee's
longer-run objective, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained
stable.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks
to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that,
with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a
moderate pace and labor market conditions will continue to improve gradually,
moving toward those the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The
Committee sees the risks to the outlook for the economy and the labor market as
nearly balanced. The Committee recognizes that inflation persistently below its
2 percent objective could pose risks to economic performance, and it is
monitoring inflation developments carefully for evidence that inflation will
move back toward its objective over the medium term.
The Committee currently judges that there is sufficient
underlying strength in the broader economy to support ongoing improvement in
labor market conditions. In light of the cumulative progress toward maximum
employment and the improvement in the outlook for labor market conditions since
the inception of the current asset purchase program, the Committee decided to
make a further measured reduction in the pace of its asset purchases. Beginning
in April, the Committee will add to its holdings of agency mortgage-backed
securities at a pace of $25 billion per month rather than $30 billion per month,
and will add to its holdings of longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $30
billion per month rather than $35 billion per month. The Committee is
maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its
holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency
mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at
auction. The Committee's sizable and still-increasing holdings of longer-term
securities should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates,
support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more
accommodative, which in turn should promote a stronger economic recovery and
help to ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with
the Committee's dual mandate.
The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on
economic and financial developments in coming months and will continue its
purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its
other policy tools as appropriate, until the outlook for the labor market has
improved substantially in a context of price stability. If incoming information
broadly supports the Committee's expectation of ongoing improvement in labor
market conditions and inflation moving back toward its longer-run objective, the
Committee will likely reduce the pace of asset purchases in further measured
steps at future meetings. However, asset purchases are not on a preset course,
and the Committee's decisions about their pace will remain contingent on the
Committee's outlook for the labor market and inflation as well as its assessment
of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases.
To support continued progress toward maximum employment
and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that a highly
accommodative stance of monetary policy remains appropriate. In determining how
long to maintain the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds
rate, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its
objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will
take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor
market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations,
and readings on financial developments. The Committee continues to anticipate,
based on its assessment of these factors, that it likely will be appropriate to
maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable
time after the asset purchase program ends, especially if projected inflation
continues to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and provided
that longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored.
When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy
accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run
goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently
anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near
mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant
keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal
in the longer run.
With the unemployment rate nearing 6-1/2 percent, the
Committee has updated its forward guidance. The change in the Committee's
guidance does not indicate any change in the Committee's policy intentions as
set forth in its recent statements.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L.
Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Richard W. Fisher; Sandra
Pianalto; Charles I. Plosser; Jerome H. Powell; Jeremy C. Stein; and Daniel K.
Tarullo.
Voting against the action was Narayana Kocherlakota, who
supported the sixth paragraph, but believed the fifth paragraph weakens the
credibility of the Committee's commitment to return inflation to the 2 percent
target from below and fosters policy uncertainty that hinders economic
activity.
美聯(lián)儲政策聲明全文（中文版）
美聯(lián)儲2014年3月19日政策聲明全文（中文版）
自FOMC
1月份政策制定會議以來所收到的信息表明，冬季各月中經(jīng)濟活動的增長速度有所放緩，部分反映了不利的天氣狀況。就業(yè)市場的各項指標表現(xiàn)不一，但整體上來看顯示出進一步的改善；但失業(yè)率仍舊維持在較高水平。家庭支出和企業(yè)固定投資繼續(xù)增長，但住房部門的復蘇進程則仍舊緩慢。財政政策正在限制經(jīng)濟增長，但這種限制的程度正在減輕。通脹一直都低于FOMC的長期目標，但較長期通脹前景一直都保持穩(wěn)定。
FOMC正依據(jù)其法定使命來尋求培育最大程度上的就業(yè)和物價穩(wěn)定性。FOMC預計，通過合適的政策融通性措施，經(jīng)濟活動將以適度的步伐擴張，失業(yè)率將朝著FOMC判定為符合其雙重使命的水平逐步下降。FOMC認為，經(jīng)濟前景和就業(yè)市場所面臨的風險已幾乎達到平衡。
FOMC還認識到，持續(xù)低于2%目標水平的通脹率可能給經(jīng)濟表現(xiàn)帶來風險，未來將仔細監(jiān)控通脹的形勢發(fā)展，以尋找中期內(nèi)通脹率將朝著FOMC目標方向運動的證據(jù)。
FOMC目前判斷，更廣泛經(jīng)濟中擁有足夠的潛在力量，可為就業(yè)市場狀況正在進行中的改善提供支持。鑒于自FOMC引入現(xiàn)有資產(chǎn)購買計劃以來朝著最大就業(yè)方向所取得的累計進展以及到就業(yè)市場狀況前景的改善，F(xiàn)OMC決定進一步緩慢而有節(jié)奏地縮減資產(chǎn)購買計劃的規(guī)
模。
從4月份開始，F(xiàn)OMC將以每個月250億美元的規(guī)模擴大其機構(gòu)抵押貸款支持債券的持有量，而不是此前的每個月300億美元；同時將以每個月300億美元的規(guī)模擴大其長期美國國債的持有量，而不是此前的每個月350億美元。
FOMC將維持現(xiàn)有的政策，將來自于所持機構(gòu)債和機構(gòu)抵押貸款支持債券的本金付款再投資到機構(gòu)抵押貸款支持債券中去，以及在國債發(fā)售交易中對即將到期的美國國債進行展期。FOMC現(xiàn)已規(guī)模龐大且仍將增加的長期債券持有量應該會對長期利率造成下行壓力，對抵押貸款市場形成支撐，并有助于讓更廣泛的金融狀況變得更具融通性，從而應可促進更加強勁的經(jīng)濟復蘇進程，有助于確保通脹率隨著時間的推移而達到最符合FOMC雙重使命的水平。
FOMC將密切監(jiān)控未來幾個月中有關(guān)經(jīng)濟和金融形勢發(fā)展的信息。FOMC將繼續(xù)實施其購買美國國債和機構(gòu)抵押貸款支持債券的計劃，并在合適的情況下動用其他政策工具，直到就業(yè)市場前景能在物價穩(wěn)定的前提下實現(xiàn)重大改善時為止。
如果未來的信息可對FOMC有關(guān)就業(yè)市場狀況正在改善、且通脹正朝著符合其長期目標的方向運動的預期形成廣泛支持，則FOMC很可能將在未來的政策會議上進一步采取緩慢而有節(jié)奏的措施以削減資產(chǎn)購買計劃的規(guī)模。但是，資產(chǎn)購買計劃并未處在一條預先設定好的
道路上，F(xiàn)OMC有關(guān)其規(guī)模的決定仍將取決于FOMC對就業(yè)市場及通脹前景的預期，以及對這種購買計劃很可能將帶來的效果及其成本的評估。
為了支持朝著最大就業(yè)和物價穩(wěn)定性的方向的繼續(xù)進展，F(xiàn)OMC今天重申此前的觀點，即貨幣政策的高度融通性立場仍舊是合適的。為了判定需在多長時間里保持目前為0到0.25%目標區(qū)間的聯(lián)邦基金利率，F(xiàn)OMC將對有關(guān)其最大就業(yè)和2%通脹目標的進展——包括已實現(xiàn)
進展和預計將有的進展——進行評估。這種評估將把一系列廣泛的信息考慮在內(nèi)，包括有關(guān)就業(yè)市場狀況的指標、通脹壓力和通脹預期指標、以及有關(guān)金融發(fā)展的讀數(shù)等。
基于對這些因素的評估，F(xiàn)OMC繼續(xù)預計，在資產(chǎn)購買計劃終結(jié)以后的很長時間里，繼續(xù)將聯(lián)邦基金利率維持在當前區(qū)間很可能仍將合適；尤其是，如果預期通脹率繼續(xù)低于FOMC的2%長期目標，并假設長期通脹預期仍很穩(wěn)定的情況下就更是如此。
當FOMC決定開始取消政策融通性措施時，將會采取平衡的舉措，這種舉措將符合其最大就業(yè)和保持2%通脹率的長期目標。FOMC目前預計，即使是在就業(yè)和通脹率均達到接近符合其雙重使命的水平以后，經(jīng)濟狀況可能仍將在一段時間里有理由令FOMC把目標聯(lián)邦基金利率維持在較低水平，這一水平低于FOMC視為正常的長期水平。
在失業(yè)率已經(jīng)接近達到6.5%的形勢下，F(xiàn)OMC已對其前瞻指導進行了更新。FOMC前瞻指導的變動，并不意味著FOMC在最近以來的政策聲明中所闡釋的政策意圖發(fā)生了任何改變。
在此次政策制定會議上投票支持FOMC貨幣政策行動的委員有：主席珍妮特-耶倫(Janet L.
Yellen)、副主席威廉-杜德利(William C. Dudley)、理查德-費舍爾(Richard W. Fisher)、桑德拉-皮亞納托(Sandra
Pianalto)、查爾斯-普羅索(Charles I. Plosser)、杰羅 姆-鮑威爾(Jerome H. Powell)、杰萊米-斯坦因(eremy
C. Stein)和丹尼爾-塔魯洛(Daniel K. Tarullo)。
納拉亞拉-柯薛拉柯塔(Narayana
Kocherlakota)投票反對FOMC的貨幣政策行動，他對本聲明的第六段表示支持，但認為第五段將削弱FOMC有關(guān)讓通脹率從較低水平重返2%目標之承諾的可信度，并培育出將對經(jīng)濟活動形成阻礙的政策不確定性。
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