美國聯(lián)邦儲備委員會18日宣布，將從明年開始小幅削減月度資產(chǎn)購買規(guī)模，同時加強(qiáng)對超低利率政策的前瞻指引。
美聯(lián)儲當(dāng)天在結(jié)束政策例會后發(fā)表聲明說，考慮到就業(yè)市場已取得的進(jìn)展和前景的改善，決定從明年1月起小幅削減月度資產(chǎn)購買規(guī)模，將長期國債的購買規(guī)模從450億美元降至400億美元，將抵押貸款支持證券的購買規(guī)模從400億美元降至350億美元。這樣一來，美聯(lián)儲月度資產(chǎn)購買規(guī)模將從原來的850億美元縮減至750億美元。
美聯(lián)儲表示，如果未來數(shù)據(jù)符合美聯(lián)儲對就業(yè)市場持續(xù)改善和通脹向長期目標(biāo)靠攏的預(yù)期，美聯(lián)儲的決策機(jī)構(gòu)——聯(lián)邦公開市場委員會可能在未來的會議上繼續(xù)小幅削減資產(chǎn)購買規(guī)模。
美聯(lián)儲在聲明中說，在失業(yè)率高于6.5%、未來1年至2年通脹預(yù)期不超過2.5%的情況下，美聯(lián)儲將繼續(xù)把聯(lián)邦基金利率(即商業(yè)銀行間隔夜拆借利率)保持在零至0.25%的超低區(qū)間。聯(lián)邦公開市場委員會預(yù)計，在失業(yè)率降至6.5%以下之后，仍可能把聯(lián)邦基金利率保持在目前的超低水平一段時間，尤其是在通脹預(yù)期持續(xù)低于2%的長期目標(biāo)的情況下。
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美聯(lián)儲政策聲明(英文版)
美聯(lián)儲公開市場委員會12月17日-12月18日政策聲明(英文版)
Press Release
Release Date: December 18， 2013
For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market
Committee met in October indicates that economic activity is expanding at a
moderate pace. Labor market conditions have shown further improvement; the
unemployment rate has declined but remains elevated. Household spending and
business fixed investment advanced， while the recovery in the housing sector
slowed somewhat in recent months. Fiscal policy is restraining economic growth，
although the extent of restraint may be diminishing. Inflation has been running
below the Committee's longer-run objective， but longer-term inflation
expectations have remained stable.
Consistent with its statutory mandate， the Committee
seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects
that， with appropriate policy accommodation， economic growth will pick up from
its recent pace and the unemployment rate will gradually decline toward levels
the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee sees the
risks to the outlook for the economy and the labor market as having become more
nearly balanced. The Committee recognizes that inflation persistently below its
2 percent objective could pose risks to economic performance， and it is
monitoring inflation developments carefully for evidence that inflation will
move back toward its objective over the medium term.
Taking into account the extent of federal fiscal
retrenchment since the inception of its current asset purchase program， the
Committee sees the improvement in economic activity and labor market conditions
over that period as consistent with growing underlying strength in the broader
economy. In light of the cumulative progress toward maximum employment and the
improvement in the outlook for labor market conditions， the Committee decided to
modestly reduce the pace of its asset purchases. Beginning in January， the
Committee will add to its holdings of agency mortgage-backed securities at a
pace of $35 billion per month rather than $40 billion per month， and will add to
its holdings of longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $40 billion per
month rather than $45 billion per month. The Committee is maintaining its
existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency
debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities
and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee's
sizable and still-increasing holdings of longer-term securities should maintain
downward pressure on longer-term interest rates， support mortgage markets， and
help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative， which in turn
should promote a stronger economic recovery and help to ensure that inflation，
over time， is at the rate most consistent with the Committee's dual
mandate.
The Committee will closely monitor incoming
information on economic and financial developments in coming months and will
continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities， and
employ its other policy tools as appropriate， until the outlook for the labor
market has improved substantially in a context of price stability. If incoming
information broadly supports the Committee's expectation of ongoing improvement
in labor market conditions and inflation moving back toward its longer-run
objective， the Committee will likely reduce the pace of asset purchases in
further measured steps at future meetings. However， asset purchases are not on a
preset course， and the Committee's decisions about their pace will remain
contingent on the Committee's outlook for the labor market and inflation as well
as its assessment of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases.
To support continued progress toward maximum
employment and price stability， the Committee today reaffirmed its view that a
highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a
considerable time after the asset purchase program ends and the economic
recovery strengthens. The Committee also reaffirmed its expectation that the
current exceptionally low target range for the federal funds rate of 0 to 1/4
percent will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains
above 6-1/2 percent， inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to
be no more than a half percentage point above the Committee's 2 percent
longer-run goal， and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well
anchored. In determining how long to maintain a highly accommodative stance of
monetary policy， the Committee will also consider other information， including
additional measures of labor market conditions， indicators of inflation
pressures and inflation expectations， and readings on financial developments.
The Committee now anticipates， based on its assessment of these factors， that it
likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal
funds rate well past the time that the unemployment rate declines below 6-1/2
percent， especially if projected inflation continues to run below the
Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal. When the Committee decides to begin to
remove policy accommodation， it will take a balanced approach consistent with
its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2
percent.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben
S. Bernanke， Chairman; William C. Dudley， Vice Chairman; James Bullard; Charles
L. Evans; Esther L. George; Jerome H. Powell; Jeremy C. Stein; Daniel K.
Tarullo; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against the action was Eric S. Rosengren，
who believes that， with the unemployment rate still elevated and the inflation
rate well below the target， changes in the purchase program are premature until
incoming data more cle
美聯(lián)儲政策聲明(中文版)
美聯(lián)儲公開市場委員會12月17日-12月18日政策聲明(中文版)
美聯(lián)儲(FED)周三(10月18日)公布了2013年第八次利率決議及政策聲明，以下為美聯(lián)儲公開市場委員會(FOMC)政策聲明的全文：
美國聯(lián)邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)自10月會議以來獲得的信息顯示，今年上半年經(jīng)濟(jì)活動繼續(xù)溫和(moderate)擴(kuò)張。近幾個月，就業(yè)市場狀況顯示進(jìn)一步改善跡象，失業(yè)率已經(jīng)下滑但仍處于高位。家庭支出和企業(yè)固定投資增加，但近幾個月樓市復(fù)蘇有所放緩，而且財政政策限制經(jīng)濟(jì)成長，盡管限制程度可能正在減輕。通脹一直低于委員會的較長期目標(biāo)水準(zhǔn)，但較長期通脹預(yù)期保持穩(wěn)定。
委員會將依照法定的目標(biāo)，尋求促進(jìn)就業(yè)最大化和物價穩(wěn)定。委員會預(yù)計在合適的寬松政策下，經(jīng)濟(jì)增長將較近期進(jìn)度加快，失業(yè)率將向委員會認(rèn)為符合其雙目標(biāo)的水準(zhǔn)逐步下滑。委員會預(yù)計經(jīng)濟(jì)和就業(yè)市場前景的下滑風(fēng)險已經(jīng)更接近平衡。委員會意識到通脹持續(xù)低于2%的目標(biāo)可能將給經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來風(fēng)險，并正密切監(jiān)控通脹發(fā)展，以尋找中期通脹率可能回升向2%的目標(biāo)的證據(jù)。
考慮到自美聯(lián)儲開始購買資產(chǎn)計劃以來聯(lián)邦財政緊縮政策的程度，委員會認(rèn)為，經(jīng)濟(jì)活動和就業(yè)市場狀況的改善符合經(jīng)濟(jì)的潛在強(qiáng)勁勢頭不斷增長的事實。鑒于美國在就業(yè)最大化方面已經(jīng)取得的累積進(jìn)展、以及就業(yè)市場狀況前景的改善，委員會決定小幅縮減資產(chǎn)購買規(guī)模。自明年1月起，將按每月350億美元的進(jìn)度購買機(jī)構(gòu)抵押支持債券(MBS)，原先為400億美元，以及以每月400億美元的進(jìn)度購買較長期國債，原先為450億美元。委員會維持把所持機(jī)構(gòu)債和機(jī)構(gòu)MBS回籠本金再投資到機(jī)構(gòu)MBS的現(xiàn)有政策，以及通過標(biāo)購繼續(xù)延長所持國債年期。委員會龐大的、且仍在不斷增長的較長期證券倉位應(yīng)會對較長期利率構(gòu)成下壓，支持抵押貸款市場，并扶助更廣泛金融市場環(huán)境更為寬松，從而促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)更強(qiáng)勁復(fù)蘇，幫助確保通脹隨著時間回到最符合委員會雙目標(biāo)水準(zhǔn)。
委員會在未來幾個月將密切監(jiān)控未來經(jīng)濟(jì)和金融發(fā)展信息。委員會將繼續(xù)購買國債和機(jī)構(gòu)MBS，并動用其它適當(dāng)?shù)恼吖ぞ撸敝猎谖飪r穩(wěn)定的前提下實現(xiàn)就業(yè)市場明顯改善。如果新進(jìn)的信息普遍支持就業(yè)市場狀況持續(xù)改善、以及通脹回向較長期目標(biāo)的委員會預(yù)期，委員會將可能在未來會議上采取進(jìn)一步有序的措施縮減購買資產(chǎn)進(jìn)度。但購買資產(chǎn)不是在預(yù)先設(shè)定的進(jìn)程，委員會在決定購買資產(chǎn)進(jìn)度時，仍將取決于委員會對于未來勞動市場及通脹的看法，以及對這類購買資產(chǎn)的潛在功效和成本的評估。
為支持向就業(yè)最大化和物價穩(wěn)定的目標(biāo)繼續(xù)前進(jìn)，委員會預(yù)計在購買資產(chǎn)計劃結(jié)束和經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇強(qiáng)化后的一段長時間內(nèi)保持高度寬松貨幣政策立場仍是合適的。委員會還決定，只要失業(yè)率仍在6.5%之上、通脹一兩年內(nèi)未較委員會較長期目標(biāo)2%高出超過0.5個百分點(diǎn)、且較長期通脹預(yù)期仍良好受控的情況下，將維持聯(lián)邦基金利率目標(biāo)在0-0.25%的區(qū)間不變。為決定維持高度寬松貨幣政策多久，委員會還將考慮其他信息，包括其他就業(yè)市場狀況數(shù)據(jù)、通脹壓力指標(biāo)和通脹預(yù)期，以及金融市場發(fā)展數(shù)據(jù)。委員會目前預(yù)計，基于對上述因素的評估，在失業(yè)率跌至6.5%之下后的一段相當(dāng)長時間內(nèi)維持聯(lián)邦基金利率目前目標(biāo)區(qū)間將可能是合適的，尤其是如果預(yù)估通脹繼續(xù)低于委員會2%的較長期目標(biāo)。在委員會決定開始撤走寬松政策時，將采取符合就業(yè)最大化和通脹2%較長期目標(biāo)的均衡措施。
贊成FOMC政策決定投票的委員是：美聯(lián)儲主席伯南克(Ben S.
Bernanke)、副主席杜德利(William C. Dudley)，芝加哥聯(lián)儲主席埃文斯(Charles Evans)，堪薩斯聯(lián)儲主席喬治(Esther
George)，理事鮑威爾(Jerome H. Powell)，圣路易斯聯(lián)儲主席布拉德(James Bullard)，理事斯坦(Jeremy C.
Stein)，理事塔魯洛(Daniel Tarullo)，副主席耶倫(Janet L. Yellen)。
另有1名美聯(lián)儲委員對聲明持異議，波士頓聯(lián)儲主席羅森格倫(Eric
Rosengren)，他認(rèn)為由于失業(yè)率仍偏高，通脹遠(yuǎn)低于目標(biāo)，在未來數(shù)據(jù)更清晰的顯示經(jīng)濟(jì)成長可能維持潛在水準(zhǔn)之上前，改變購買資產(chǎn)計劃時機(jī)尚不成熟。