澳大利亞央行8月6日宣布降息25個基點至2.5%，自2013年8月7日起生效，該結(jié)果符合市場普遍預(yù)期。澳大利亞央行本輪降息周期在21個月間累計降息幅度達225個基點。
澳大利亞央行資料圖
澳大利亞央行聲明稱，降息的決定是適宜的，過去18個月內(nèi)的寬松政策支撐了對利率敏感的支出水平和資產(chǎn)價格，失業(yè)率已經(jīng)走高。預(yù)計近期經(jīng)濟增長低于趨勢水平，必要時將會調(diào)整政策刺激增長。這暗示未來寬松之門依然敞開。
澳大利亞央行稱，澳元可能進一步走軟，澳元匯率走低將有助于經(jīng)濟增長再平衡。同時強調(diào)，勞動成本增速溫和，即使澳元進一步疲軟，仍預(yù)計未來兩年內(nèi)通脹率將維持在目標(biāo)范圍之內(nèi)。
內(nèi)需不振、失業(yè)率緩慢上升、通脹溫和，這些因素都支持了澳大利亞進一步推出刺激計劃。
在決議聲明公布后，澳元兌美元受“賣預(yù)期，買事實”情緒快速走高，此前部分空頭選擇獲利了結(jié)，推動澳元兌美元刷新日內(nèi)高點0.8969。
從4月11日起，澳元兌美元從當(dāng)時取得的五周高點1.0582起，一路走出一波單邊下跌行情，截止本周一度創(chuàng)下三年低點0.8845，澳元在短短3個多月的時間里累積下跌了1737點，成為了年內(nèi)足以與日元相媲美的最弱G10貨幣之一。
附：澳大利亞央行會后聲明（英文版）
Statement by Glenn Stevens, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision
At its meeting today, the Board decided to lower the cash
rate by 25 basis points to 2.5 per cent, effective 7 August
2013.
Recent information is consistent with global growth
running a bit below average this year, with reasonable prospects of a pick-up
next year. Commodity prices have declined but, overall, remain at high levels by
historical standards. Inflation has moderated over recent months in a number of
countries.
Globally, financial conditions remain very
accommodative, though the recent reassessment by markets of the outlook for US
monetary policy has seen a noticeable rise in sovereign bond yields, from
exceptionally low levels. Volatility in financial markets has increased and has
affected a number of emerging market economies in
particular.
In Australia, the economy has been growing a
bit below trend over the past year. This is expected to continue in the near
term as the economy adjusts to lower levels of mining investment. The
unemployment rate has edged higher. Recent data confirm that inflation has been
consistent with the medium-term target. With growth in labour costs moderating,
this is expected to remain the case over the next one to two years, even with
the effects of the recent depreciation of the exchange
rate.
The easing in monetary policy over the past 18
months has supported interest-sensitive spending and asset values, and further
effects can be expected over time. The pace of borrowing has remained relatively
subdued, though recently there are signs of increased demand for finance by
households.
The Australian dollar has depreciated by
around 15 per cent since early April, although it remains at a high level. It is
possible that the exchange rate will depreciate further over time, which would
help to foster a rebalancing of growth in the economy.
The
Board has previously noted that the inflation outlook could provide some scope
to ease policy further, should that be required to support demand. At today's
meeting, and taking account of recent information on prices and activity, the
Board judged that a further decline in the cash rate was appropriate. The Board
will continue to assess the outlook and adjust policy as needed to foster
sustainable growth in demand and inflation outcomes consistent with the
inflation target over time.（來源：澳大利亞央行網(wǎng)站）
澳大利亞央行會后聲明（中文版）
在今日的會議上，委員會決定降息25個基點，至2.5%，近期獲得的數(shù)據(jù)信息符合今年全球經(jīng)濟增長略低于均值水平的態(tài)勢，預(yù)計明年有望實現(xiàn)提升。商品價格進一步下跌，不過總體來看，價格仍處在歷史高位附近。
多個國家的通脹數(shù)月來表現(xiàn)溫和，國際金融環(huán)境非常具備適應(yīng)性。不過市場對于美國的貨幣政策的評估有所轉(zhuǎn)變，促使主權(quán)債收益率從異常低位反彈，金融市場的波動性有所提升，尤其對一些新興市場構(gòu)成影響。
澳洲本地方面，過去1年來澳洲經(jīng)濟增速略低于趨勢水平，這一情況預(yù)計將在短期內(nèi)持續(xù)，因礦業(yè)投資水平下降需要經(jīng)濟逐漸去適應(yīng)。失業(yè)率略有上升，近期數(shù)據(jù)確認(rèn)了通脹符合中期目標(biāo)水平，就業(yè)成本升幅相對溫和。
就業(yè)成本增速溫和的情況下，即便澳元匯率近期標(biāo)志的情況下，預(yù)計這樣的情形預(yù)計將在未來1-2年內(nèi)持續(xù)。
貨幣政策過去18個月來持續(xù)放松，支持了利率敏感型行業(yè)的開支，預(yù)計隨著時間的流逝，后續(xù)效應(yīng)還會逐步釋放。盡管借貸形勢相對溫和，不過近期有跡象顯示家庭部門融資需求有所上升。
澳元匯率雖然仍處相對高位，但自4月早些時候以來已下跌近15%。預(yù)計本幣將隨著時間的推移繼續(xù)下跌，這將有助經(jīng)濟增長的再均衡過程。
委員會先前表示，如果有必要繼續(xù)支持經(jīng)濟，通脹前景可能為進一步降息營造有利環(huán)境。在今日的會議上，考慮到近期價格和經(jīng)濟活動性的表現(xiàn)，委員會判斷進一步下調(diào)現(xiàn)金利率的做法是合適的，委員會將繼續(xù)評估經(jīng)濟前景并在必要時調(diào)整政策，從而培育持續(xù)的需求增長，并維護通脹形勢符合目標(biāo)。